Light snow will linger back into southeastern Michigan as a slow moving low pressure system affects the state. There will be a chance of lake effect snow showers tonight across the tri cities and thumb…with a chance of light snow showers Sunday afternoon for all of the area. Widespread snow chances increase on Monday as a clipper system will drop into the Great Lakes.
8am Friday Update: Computer weather models are not in complete agreement at this hour. The event is within 12 hours from beginning in the Southeast (SC, NC) so let’s go with where our confidence is highest.
There will be a major snow event for western and central North Carolina. There will be a major snow event for nearly the entire state of Virginia.
Washington, DC – this is still a major snowstorm for you. Delaware, you are in the snow crosshairs too.
South Jersey, get ready for a plowable snow.
This is where things get tricky. Does the winter storm take more of an easterly track and move away from the big Northeast cities of the I-95 corridor.
Or does the winter storm, intensify into an even more powerful storm, head north and produce blizzard conditions for Philadelphia, New York City and eventually Boston.
That is the major question of the morning. We still don’t have a concrete answer. But we’ll continue to follow the latest updates through the morning.
In the meantime winter storm warnings and watches are plastered across the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast.
A blizzard watch is in effect for Long Island.
Wow the NAM wants to hold onto the biggest storm since 2003 at this hour for Philly Metro. It did drop off from 23″ to 17″. Now this snow total is not including thundersnow, and a snow ratio that could be 12:1. Add those two features and the NAM is pushing 20″ for Philly without a problem. The air is very cold near and aloft so look for a few surprises from this storm if this NAM track holds up.
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The GFS has gone up yet again from .91″ on the 6z to 1.12″ for Philly metro. I knew they would meet but the meeting place is higher than my totals of 6-12″ from yesterday. The GFS is also very cold at all levels and this makes me believe that the snow ratio, without drifts will be higher as well. So here we have the following numbers by the models less than 24 hrs from the storm.
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NAM including snow ratio and banding/thundersnow shows 17″ to 24″
GFS including snow ratio and banding/thundersnow shows 11″ to 15″
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I’m pressed for time but the two models are pretty close and we have ourselves a top 5 December snowfall tonight and tomorrow. Enjoy it and Mike and Mike will be popping into the chat rooms as well as updating today as needed.
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updated totals ya’ll….
PHILLY METRO….. 9-18″
PHILLY N & W BURBS…..8-16″
WILMINGTON DE AREA…..10-20″
READING PA….. 6-10″
ALLENTOWN PA…..4-8″
LANCASTER PA…..1-3″
POCONOS…..2-5″
TRENTON…..11-17″
MILLVILLE & INTERIOR SNJ…..12″-20″ (SOME MIX MAY SHAVE AN INCH OR TWO) SLEET..UGH
DOVER DE…..13-20″ THIS COULD BE THE SWEET SPOT DOV TO MILLVILLE !
AC & THE SNJ BEACHES….. 8-16″ RAIN/MIX WILL TOY WITH TOTALS
DE BEACHES….. 5-10″ DEPENDS ON RAIN/SLEET MIXED IN
NORTH JERSEY….. 8-14″
NYC METRO….. 7-15″
WESTERN LI….. 9-18′ blizzard conditions at times
EASTERN LI….. 9-18″ blizzard conditions at times
BALTIMORE….. 10-18″
DC METRO….. 11-20″
RICHMOND VA…..4-9″
BOSTON….. 4-8″
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DC/BALTIMORE/LOWER DE STARTS AFTER 1AM
SNJ, NCC & PHILLY STARTS ABOUT 4AM
TRENTON-ALLENTOWN-READING AFTER 9AM
NORTH JERSEY/NYC AFTER 1PM
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The big storm has moved away, but it left strong winds, bitter cold temperatures and snow squalls in its wake.
Winds of 15 to 35 mph with gusts over 40 mph are likely from the Great Lakes and Midwest through the Northeast.
The strong winds will add a bite to the chilly air that moved in behind the storm.
Afternoon temperatures ranging from the 20s near the lakes to the 40s along the Northeast coast will feel like the single digits to lower 30s when the wind is factored in.
The winds remain strong tonight and Friday running 15 to 30 mph with gusts still approaching 40 mph at times. Friday night and Saturday is when the winds should finally begin to calm down.
Very cold temperatures followed the storm into the Midwest and Plains with morning lows falling to 0 in Chicago and -6 in Des Moines, Iowa.
Many other locations across the eastern Plains and Midwest fell between 0 and -15 degrees.
Winds of 5 to 15 mph across the Plains and 10 to 25 mph in the Midwest combined with the bitter cold temperatures to make it feel like -10 to -30 degrees.
Tonight the winds calm down, but temperatures remain very cold with overnight lows falling into the single digits above and below zero.
Even though the winds lighten up any light breeze makes it feel like -10 to -30 degrees Friday morning.
The cold temperatures being blown over the warm waters of the Great Lakes by the strong winds are producing heavy snow squalls.
The heaviest snow should fall just east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario with 24 to 40 inches possible through Friday night.
Lighter snow amounts are possible over the remainder of western New York, northwest Pennsylvania, northern Ohio, northern Indiana, and Michigan.
| Tonight | Partly cloudy during the early evening…then becoming mostly cloudy. Blustery. Snow showers likely. Light after 7 pm. Accumulations around an inch. Lows 9 to 13…with wind chills around 5 below. West winds 15 to 25 mph…becoming southwest 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent. |
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