Wow the NAM wants to hold onto the biggest storm since 2003 at this hour for Philly Metro. It did drop off from 23″ to 17″. Now this snow total is not including thundersnow, and a snow ratio that could be 12:1. Add those two features and the NAM is pushing 20″ for Philly without a problem. The air is very cold near and aloft so look for a few surprises from this storm if this NAM track holds up.
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The GFS has gone up yet again from .91″ on the 6z to 1.12″ for Philly metro. I knew they would meet but the meeting place is higher than my totals of 6-12″ from yesterday. The GFS is also very cold at all levels and this makes me believe that the snow ratio, without drifts will be higher as well. So here we have the following numbers by the models less than 24 hrs from the storm.
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NAM including snow ratio and banding/thundersnow shows 17″ to 24″
GFS including snow ratio and banding/thundersnow shows 11″ to 15″
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I’m pressed for time but the two models are pretty close and we have ourselves a top 5 December snowfall tonight and tomorrow. Enjoy it and Mike and Mike will be popping into the chat rooms as well as updating today as needed.
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updated totals ya’ll….
PHILLY METRO….. 9-18″
PHILLY N & W BURBS…..8-16″
WILMINGTON DE AREA…..10-20″
READING PA….. 6-10″
ALLENTOWN PA…..4-8″
LANCASTER PA…..1-3″
POCONOS…..2-5″
TRENTON…..11-17″
MILLVILLE & INTERIOR SNJ…..12″-20″ (SOME MIX MAY SHAVE AN INCH OR TWO) SLEET..UGH
DOVER DE…..13-20″ THIS COULD BE THE SWEET SPOT DOV TO MILLVILLE !
AC & THE SNJ BEACHES….. 8-16″ RAIN/MIX WILL TOY WITH TOTALS
DE BEACHES….. 5-10″ DEPENDS ON RAIN/SLEET MIXED IN
NORTH JERSEY….. 8-14″
NYC METRO….. 7-15″
WESTERN LI….. 9-18′ blizzard conditions at times
EASTERN LI….. 9-18″ blizzard conditions at times
BALTIMORE….. 10-18″
DC METRO….. 11-20″
RICHMOND VA…..4-9″
BOSTON….. 4-8″
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BLIZZARD WATCH IS PEA GREEN
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START TIMES….
DC/BALTIMORE/LOWER DE STARTS AFTER 1AM
SNJ, NCC & PHILLY STARTS ABOUT 4AM
TRENTON-ALLENTOWN-READING AFTER 9AM
NORTH JERSEY/NYC AFTER 1PM
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