Fred weakening; Gulf of Mexico unsettled

In the eastern Atlantic, minimal Tropical Storm Fred will soon be a tropical depression and then remnant low. Fred is basically a low level swirl with no convection.

Closer to the U.S., abundant tropical moisture continues to surge out of the Gulf of Mexico, impacting the Gulf Coast States and beyond from Florida to Texas and Oklahoma. This is all in response to a broad trough of low pressure over the northern and northwest Gulf and an upper-level low over Texas.

While conditions do not support tropical development at this time, the Gulf of Mexico will continue to be monitored through the weekend. The weak low in the northwest Gulf will probably move inland into extreme eastern Texas or Louisiana to quickly and the upper levels are still somewhat hostile.

Regardless, bands of heavy flash-flooding rain and thunderstorms continue to impact much of the region. Additionally, there could be some minor costal flooding along southern Louisiana due to increased onshore flow.

The eastern Pacific is quiet.

EASTERN PACIFIC

Tropical Storm Linda is becoming stronger but is over 1,200 miles to the west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. As of 2 pm PDT it has winds of 60 mph and it was moving west at 7 mph away from land.

Linda is no threat to any land masses. T.D. 7-E

Tropical Depression 7-E has formed in the far eastern Atlantic. This system is centered baout 160 miles south of the southernmost Cape Verde islands. It is moving west at 16 mph and is expected to become a tropical storm overnight. The name would be Fred.

The depression is bringing heavy, squally rain to the southern Cape Verde Islands Conditions should improve on the islands Tuesday. The storm should be picked up by an upper trough in the Atlantic and should be no threat to any land masses.

JIMENA

Hurricane Jimena

Hurricane Jimena

As of 2 a.m. Pacific Time Tuesday, Jimena was located about 185 miles south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 miles per hour, making Jimena a top-end category 4 hurricane, just shy of category 5 strength.

Jimena is moving to the north-northwest near 12 miles per hour; this motion is expected to continue over the next day or two. Jimena is expected to approach the southern coast of the Baja Peninsula tonight and Wednesday as a major (category 3 or higher) hurricane.

A hurricane warning is now in effect for the southern end of the Baja Peninsula from Puerto San Andresito on the West Coast around the southern tip of the peninsula and north to loreto on the East Coast (this includes Cabo San Lucas). A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are possible within 24 hours. The southern tip of the warning area will see rapidly deteriorating conditions today and tonight.

Hurricane watches have been issued farther north along the Baja Peninsula from Puerto San Andresito to Punta Eugenia on the West Coast and from Loreto to Bahia San Juan Bautista on the East Coast. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. The watch may be extended further north later today.

Tropical storm watches are also in effect for the West Coast of Mainland Mexico from Altata to Huatabampito. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours. This watch may also be extended further north later today.

Hurricane force winds extend out 45 miles and tropical storm force winds out to 140 miles. Since the wind field is on the smaller side, the degree of damage will be largely dictated by the exact track Jimena travels along.

Residents and visitors of southern Baja California should be finishing their preparations for a major hurricane. Damaging winds, battering waves and heavy, flooding rains are all possible.

Because of the relatively small size of Jimena’s wind field, flooding rain will be a greater concern because this effect will be felt well away from the center and far away from the strongest winds. With heavy rain falling over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, this will lead to potentially deadly flash flooding as usually dry creeks and washes will fill quickly and stay full or overflowing for a brief period of time.

High waves being generated by Jimena are expected along the Mexican coastline from Manzanillo northward to the southern Baja. Dangerous rip currents will also be generated by the high surf in the same area. Surfers and swimmers should stay out of the water.

The last major hurricane to directly hit Baja California was Hurricane Kiko on August 27, 1989.

Hurricane Jimena

Hurricane Jimena

JIMENA

As of 8 a.m. Pacific Time Monday, Jimena was located about 355 miles south-southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico with top winds of 145 mph. It is moving off to the northwest at 8 miles per hour.

A turn more to the north-northwest is forecast and this would bring Jimena near southern Baja California on Tuesday. Jimena is expected to be a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) at that time.

A hurricane warning is now in effect for the southern end of the Baja Peninsula from Bahia Magdalena on the west coast around the southern tip of the peninsula and north to San Evaristo on the east coast (this includes Cabo San Lucas). A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are possible within 24 hours.

Hurricane watches have been issued farther north along the Baja Peninsula from Bahia Magdalena to Punta Abreojos on the west coast and from San Evaristo to Mulege on the east coast.

Hurricane force winds extend out 30 miles and tropical storm force winds out to 80 miles. Since the wind field is on the smaller side, the degree of damage will be largely dictated by the exact track Jimena travels along.

Residents and visitors of southern Baja California should be making preparations at this time for a major hurricane. Damaging winds, battering waves and heavy rain are all possible.

High waves being generated by Jimena are expected along the Mexican coastline from Manzanillo northward to the southern Baja. Dangerous rip currents will also be generated by the high surf in the same area. Surfers and swimmers should stay out of the water.

The last major hurricane to directly hit Baja California was Hurricane Kiko on August 27, 1989.

Danny Status

Danny Status

Danny weakens even more; some impacts still possible for the Outer Banks and eastern New England. Continue reading »

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